How much can actually be recovered from illicit flows or stolen assets, and on what timeline?
Possible additional upside. It receives zero reference credit until actual recovery is demonstrated.
possible upside, zero reference credit
IFF / asset recovery upside
Treat recovery of illicit financial flows or assets as possible upside. The reference model assigns it zero credit until it can be demonstrated.
Possible additional upside. It receives zero reference credit until actual recovery is demonstrated.
When it can be counted
- A credible legal and administrative basis must exist to collect, save or transfer the resources concerned.
- Usable capacity must be estimated separately from a theoretical or planning ceiling.
- Administrative costs, distributional effects, incentives and avoidance risks must be considered before crediting resources to material-security financing.
What it does not prove
- Reference credit is zero until actual recoveries are demonstrated.
- Estimates of illicit stocks, theoretical losses or legal cases do not equal budget resources.
They are not resources already available or funding already secured.
These families remain instruments to parameterize with context-specific data and rules. No entry is treated as an available resource merely because it appears in the catalogue; global quantitative feasibility remains to be demonstrated.
Sources and further detail
External sources used to assess public finance, fiscal capacity and financing instruments are linked on the Sources page. World4Humans internal technical working materials are not publicly distributed.